The time frame is quite limited compared to the main BLS data series in the monthly employment report, many of which go back to 1948, and the enormously popular Nonfarm Employment (PAYEMS) series goes back to 1939, while the BLS began tracking JOLTS in December 2000.Nevertheless, there are some clear JOLTS correlations with the most recent business cycle trends. , Hawaii has the highest average price for Regular at .21 and San Francisco, CA is the most expensive city, averaging .27. The WTIC end of day spot price closed at 61.73, a 2.3% increase from this time last week. All eight indexes on our world watch list have posted gains through the first week of 2018. What are the long-term trends for multiple jobholders in the US?
It is at 2.6% year-over-year, down from 3.1% last month, on a non-seasonally adjusted basis.
Core Final Demand (less food and energy) came in at -0.1% Mo M, down from the previous month and is up 2.3% Yo Y NSA.
The top performer is Tokyo's Nikkei 225 with a gain of 4.17%, followed by Germany's DAXK with a gain of 3.48%. The Bureau of Labor Statistics has two decades of historical data to enlighten us on that topic, courtesy of Table A-16 in the monthly Current Population Survey.
At present, multiple jobholders account for just 4.9 percent of civilian employment.
Consider: Today nearly one in three of the 65-69 cohort and about one in five of the 70-74 cohort are in the labor force. The Labor Force Participation Rate (LFPR) is a simple computation: You take the Civilian Labor Force (people age 16 and over employed or seeking employment) and divide it by the Civilian Noninstitutional Population (those 16 and over not in the military and or committed to an institution).
The result is the participation rate expressed as a percent. The latest JOLTS report (Job Openings and Labor Turnover Summary), with data through November, is now available.We've updated our monthly workforce analysis to include last week's Employment Report for December.The unemployment rate remained at 4.1%, and the number of new nonfarm jobs (a relatively volatile number subject to extensive revisions) came in at 148K. This is not the scenario that would have been envisioned a generation ago for the "Golden Years" of retirement.Excluding the 1981 recession, the Initial Claims trough lead time for a recession has ranged from 7 to 22 months with an average of 12 months if we include the 1981 recession and 14 months if we exclude it.Admittedly, the last recession is an extreme example, but the Initial Claims trough preceded its December 2007 onset by a whopping 22 months. This commentary has been updated to include this morning's release of Nonfarm Employment.The purchasing power of your investment has increased to ,071 for an annualized real return of 14.02%. Our monthly market valuation updates have long had the same conclusion: US stock indexes are significantly overvalued, which suggests cautious expectations on investment returns. With the latest monthly close and the GDP Q3 Third Estimate data, we now have an updated look at the popular "Buffett Indicator" -- the ratio of corporate equities to GDP.